The third placed Marco Rubio in the Iowa caucuses Monday, was admired by observers they liked what they saw from the Florida senator’s campaign. Now, the most likely outcome of the GOP presidential primary season is a victory for Rubio, according to political pundits.
On Monday, bookmakers gave Rubio a 1 ratio 3 chance of winning the nomination. According to data compiled by Oddschecker, Rubio’s now has a better than before after the result in Iowa.
Rubio and his campaign team really has much work to do. Donald Trump and Sen. Ted Cruz, won more delegates than he did in Iowa. Rubio was trailing the big two by a wide margin in the most recent national polls.
Meanwhile, reportedly economists say that betting markets often better predict the outcomes of elections than polls. When there is cash on ground, people are less likely to be moved by attention from the unstable media who momentarily inflate a candidate’s polling. Now, bettors who are prepared to put their money on a candidate might be well informed with that candidate’s strengths before the general public is aware of them.
What bettors liked about Rubio’s showing in Iowa is presently shrouded. Maybe they got disappointed with Trump who polls predicted would take first place. Or perhaps they expected more of Trump’s supporters to turn out to vote. Trump’s field operation is heavily criticized since the caucuses ended and if his organization has similar problems in other states, he could be a bad bet.
Maybe bettors think that Trump’s strength of appeal solely lies on his braggadocios attribute, which he might be humbled now by Cruz beaten him soundly at the polls.
Trump’s chances were greater than 50 percent on Monday. But it declined on Tuesday, they drifted below 1-in-3 as bettors drastically reduced their expectations for his campaign. http://www.whorunsgov.com/3244-2/03244