FiveThirtyEight show poll forecasts that Senator Ted Cruz would win the Iowa caucus for the GOP while former secretary of state, Hilary Clinton would easily win in the democratic party come February 1. FiveThirtyEight earned praises for successfully predicting all 50 states in the 2012 presidential election.
Cruz is projected to win Iowa with 51 percent while a Donald Trump follows with 29 percent. National and state polls were considered in the forecasts. Endorsements were also taken into account.
State polls shows very close margins between Trump and Cruz
The state polls reveals that the real estate mogul, Trump has a slightly higher chance with a score of 44 percent to Cruz’s 42 percent.
For the democratic party, Clinton is forecasted to have all round victory over Vermont senator, Bernie Sanders. The margins are more convincing in the case of the democratic party. The forecasts give Clinton an 82 percent chance of winning while Sanders comes at 18 percent. However, looking at just the state polls alone, Clinton only garnered 66 percent leaving Sanders with the remaining 34 percent.
State polls alone may not be accurate
Based on forecasts from this poll, it shows that state polls alone might be the most accurate predictor of primary results. FiveThirtyEight employed two filtering options: polls-plus and polls only. Polls-plus forecast determines a candidate’s chance of winning based on state and national polls as well as endorsements. Polls only forecast determines and polls-only, a determination based solely on state polls
Both of the forecasts show Trump has a higher chance of winning over all other candidates. For new Hampshire polls alone, Trump leads with 57 percent with Rubio the next in line with 12 percent. When other endorsements are considered, Trump has 39 percent while Rubio has 19 percent.
For the democratic party, Sanders has a 72 percent chance based on New Hampshire alone. When all polls and endorsements are accounted, Hilary Clinton has 57 percent and Sanders surprisingly polls 43 percent.